Joseph H. Chung (정희수), Ph.D., Professor of Economics at Quebec University in Montreal (UQAM)
(지난 호에 이어)
Second, the political influence of Washington among developing countries is weakening, because these countries depend less on Washington's aid.
Third, the harsh condition of the structural adjustment imposed by IMF on debtor countries is another reason for declining influence of Washington.
Fourth, the power of dollar which has been loyal servant of the Pax Americana is falling because of the increasing use of non-dollar currencies for central banks' reserves and international trade. Until not long ago, the US dollars accounted for 90 % of central banks' reserves, but now they represent only 60%.
Besides, increasing number of countries including China, Russia and several other countries are using, for international trade, non-dollar currencies. This trend is likely to continue.
Fifth, the American ordinary people do no longer want war. Since 1945, rare have been days without wars somewhere in the world. Americans don't want war.
Americans have been paying a lot for the war. The sacrifice of human lives, the underdevelopment of welfare, especially, the medical care which is one of the most expensive systems in the world, social insecurity due to crimes and rifle violence, worsening state of social infrastructure, increasing burden of education of the poor are some of the costs of never-ending wars imposed on the American people.
For all these reasons, it will become more and more difficult for Washington to continue to dominate the world alone.
Now, as for China, its international relation has been guided by the principles of pragmatism, the philosophy of non-interference and the preference for the decision making based on consensus rather than the unilateral imposition of ideas.
Let us see how this Chinese way thinking affects its vision of international relation.
First, in accordance with the philosophy of non-interference, China is not interested to change the regime of foreign countries. China has no evangelical ideology to conquer the world under one value system. Moreover, being pragmatic, China might consider that the cost of regime change is too exorbitant.
Second, the pragmatism has led China to respect and apply the rules and norms set out by the WTO system, not because it likes them, but because they don't hamper China's role in the international trade system.
Third, China wants the security and the prosperity of other countries, because they are useful for China's security and prosperity. Here again, we see China's pragmatism.
The project One Belt-One Road, so called the BRI, is perhaps the model of Pax Sinica (China Peace). In this model, 68 countries collaborate for the common security and prosperity; it is not motivated by any dogmatic ideology; it is motivated for common objective to live better.
The primary objective of the BRI is the development of social and industrial infrastructure. One of the main reasons for the un-development and the underdevelopment of the economies of so many countries in Africa and Asia has been precisely the lack of infrastructure facilities.
Furthermore, the development of infrastructure will facilitate the integration of the whole Eurasian economic block accounting for 40 % of global GDP and 60% of the world population.
In all probabilities, China could become the most powerful country in the world, which will surely impact the destiny of mankind.
But, China will not impose Pax Sinica; it will not try to change the regimes of other countries.
It is most likely that China will seek for peaceful cooperation with the Unites States for the global security and prosperity.
The kind of global order which China will foster will be the duo-polar order in which Washington and Beijing will lead in harmony the world toward a better place to live for all men and women. This is what I wish with all my heart.
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